FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET
Ключевые слова:
e-commerce, forecast, adaptive models, regression analysis, global gross domestic product, regions, forecast models, world market volume, household income, retail trade volumes.Аннотация
Theoretical analysis of the concept of “e-commerce” was carried out. Based on the adaptive brown
models of the first and second orders, the Holt linear exponential smoothing model, and the Box-Jenkins model, the
forecast of the world e-commerce market volumes for 2020-2022 was constructed. The reliability and adequacy of
the forecast models were evaluated. The basic, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the development of the global
e-commerce market for 2020-2022 are highlighted and described. According to the basic development scenario, the
market is expected to continue its active growth at the level of 18.4 ± 3.5% per year until 2022. At the same time,
there is a tendency to decrease the growth rate from 19.61% in 2020 to 17.21% in 2022, due to the geographical
change in the growth trend of Internet penetration from developed countries to low-income countries in Africa. The
analytical dependence of the e-commerce influence on the growth of the world economy is constructed, which
shows, that the increase in the volume of the world e-commerce market by $ 1 billion increases global GDP by
$ 4.99 billion. Based on the constructed model of the relationship between global GDP and the volume of the global
e-commerce market, the forecast of global GDP growth in 2020-2022 by 4.0 ± 1.0% annually is constructed. The
increase in the share of the e-commerce market in global GDP in 2022 compared to 2019 is projected at 47.5%.
